Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Don't get hopes up for high CAD, Carney

Passable article over at the Globe reporting that BoC governor Mark Carney is trying to "talk down" the loonie from being seen as a safe haven for hot foreign capital flows based on oil prices.

What he means, if not precisely is that real interest rates in Canada are still effectively negative, and he will print money to make sure that the CAD stays near parity with the USD because our exports depend on it.

Canada has no competitive manufacturing industries, and it uses its proximity to the US and periodic weakening of the dollar and commodity price controls to maintain exports. Anything below parity with USD is an opportunity, since in terms of raw purchasing power in Canada the CAD has a value of as much as, or more than the USD.

However, Canada's M2 equivalent marches exponentially alongside the US M2, and with an inevitable QE3 of some sort in the US, Canada will likely fire up the presses in unison, soaking carry traders and hot money alike.

Carney is spending more time in the press than the finance minister. Politically that must mean something.

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